Surveys of Consumers

Take the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for November, which hit the wires Friday. The headline uptick from 70.5 to 71.8 continues the rebound from consumers’ summertime blues, matching the signs of perking optimism we have seen elsewhere. But under the hood, we see partisan sentiment making its customary post-election flip, right on schedule! And it presents a timely reminder on the dangers of letting your political leanings affect your market outlook.

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It takes into account people’s feelings toward their current financial health, the health of the economy in the short term, and the prospects for longer-term economic growth, and is widely considered to be a useful economic indicator. Whenever an economic report hits the wires, the most interesting nuggets usually lurk under the hood. The headline number is fine and all, but the details showing how we got there?

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Charts and analysis from this forecast will be available soon via Chartbook. About 60% of each monthly survey consists of new responses, and the remaining 40% is drawn from review the little book that still beats the market repeat surveys. The repeat surveys help reveal the changes in consumer sentiment over time and provide a more accurate measure of consumer confidence.

About the surveys

That lasted until Joe Biden won in 2020, bringing four years of cheerier Democrats. Financial time series database which allows you to identify and examine trends, generate and test ideas and develop viewpoints on the market. It’s also one of the biggest times of the year for B&B and other retailers. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 70.5 in the October 2024 survey, up from 70.1 in September and above last October’s 63.8.

While higher-income households expect particularly strong income growth in the coming year, consumers overall remain extremely frustrated by the persistence of high prices, Hsu said. About 44% of consumers mentioned that high prices are eroding their living standards, little changed from the past six months. The expectations index for September is now 13% above a year ago and reflects greater optimism across a broad swath of the population. While sentiment remains below its historical average in part due to frustration over high prices, consumers are fully aware that inflation has continued to slow, said U-M economist Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys. The presidential election did little to change overall trends in consumer views as consumer sentiment lifted for the fourth consecutive month, inching up to its highest reading since April 2024.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) was created as a subsidiary of the CSI. It has come to be included in the larger index of Leading Composite Indicators published by bdswiss forex broker review the Bureau of Economic Analysis through the Department of Commerce.

The Current Index rose to 64.9, up from 63.3 in September and below last October’s 70.6. The Expectations Index fell to 74.1, down from 74.4 in September and above last October’s 59.3. gold mining stocks As usual, Independents remain in between, with a 4% sentiment gain this month.

Less than one-third of consumers expect unemployment rates to rise in the year ahead, compared with 41% a year ago. About 38% of consumers blamed high prices for eroding their living standards, up from 33% last month. For the third consecutive month, a rising share of consumers spontaneously mentioned food or grocery prices.

• Following Donald Trump’s election win, Republicans are feeling more positively about the economy, while Democratics are more pessimistic.
• Last year, several major retailers ran heavy on inventory — a hangover from post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and consumer demand shifts.
• Several major economic indices and indicators can help investors and economists predict where the economy is headed.
• At the most extreme, it could lead you to make wholesale asset allocation changes at the wrong time, which could veer you from the path to your long-term financial goals.

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Companies that provide consumer goods often reap the initial fruits of improved consumer sentiment. Consumers who feel more confident about the economy generally also feel better about their employment prospects and are therefore more willing to buy houses, cars, appliances, and other items. Investors should look at the stocks of car manufacturers, home builders, and other retailers that typically see sales rise when the economy begins an expansion period.

Sentiment has remained essentially unchanged since January 2024, continuing the plateau that followed the large gains seen at the end of 2023, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Investing.com– The S&P 500 closer higher Friday, notching its best week this year as easing fears over the economic triggered a wave of dip buying in stocks following the recent market… Erika Rasure is globally-recognized as a leading consumer economics subject matter expert, researcher, and educator. She is a financial therapist and transformational coach, with a special interest in helping women learn how to invest. Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader.

Consumer sentiment builds momentum as inflation continues to slow

Last year, several major retailers ran heavy on inventory — a hangover from post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and consumer demand shifts. And when excess stock piles up in the back room and in the warehouses, the solution typically involves slashing prices to help move it out the door. Crude oil prices traded lower on Monday as fears of weaker demand in China weighed on market sentiment. Japan’s core machinery orders rose more than expected in June compared to a month ago. US stock market ended higher on Friday, extending its biggest weekly percentage gains of the year, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notching their seventh straight session of gains.

Several major economic indices and indicators can help investors and economists predict where the economy is headed. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) all forecast the future strength of the U.S. economy. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is another key indicator designed to illustrate the average U.S. consumer’s confidence level. This indicator is important to retailers, economists, and investors, and its rise and fall has historically helped predict economic expansions and contractions. Consumers also exhibited more confidence in their own personal prospects, with a rising share of consumers expecting improvements in their own financial situations in the next year. Over half of consumers expect their incomes to grow at least as fast as inflation, the highest share since July 2021.